Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara. This market refers to the tennis match between Dany Robas and Filippo Valdetara in the ITF M25 Lausanne Men, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
We read ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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