Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth. This market refers to the tennis match between Anastasija Cvetkovic and Mara Guth in the ITF W35 Verbier Women, originally scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ana…
Methodology
This page compares ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guth specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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