Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup Group D match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, 25 June at Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium, Inglewood). The USMNT plays its final group-stage fixture here, with Turkey as the Group D opponent; kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. PT, and the game will be broadcast live on FOX and FS1, with streaming available via FOX One and the FOX Sports App[1][2].

Historically, USMNT final-group probabilities of 30–35% have preceded outcomes where the team either draws or loses narrowly, often by one goal, in high-stakes World Cup group matches. Comparable cases include the 2014 USMNT vs Germany draw (1–1) and the 2018 loss to England (0–1), where pre-match implied probabilities hovered near 32% for the US side before tight, low-scoring finishes[1]. These precedents suggest the current 31% YES probability reflects a plausible scenario of a narrow US result rather than a decisive win.

Traders should monitor official line-up announcements released by FIFA around 18:00 PT on 25 June, injury updates from both national teams, and any late weather advisories for the Los Angeles venue. Reuters confirms the match is live on 25 June at 7 p.m. local time, with all 72 group-stage games airing across FOX networks[2][6]. Key dependencies include the USMNT’s prior group performance (they played Australia on 19 June) and Turkey’s form in preceding fixtures, both of which may influence tactical approaches and market sentiment[1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.