Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti will face Scotland in a FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifying match on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The current 5% implied probability on Polymarket reflects Scotland's substantial advantage in ranking, recent form, and home-field positioning within the qualification structure. Haiti ranks 89th in the FIFA standings; Scotland sits 37th. A Haiti victory would constitute a major upset, though not unprecedented in World Cup qualification where lower-ranked sides occasionally secure results against European opposition.

Historical context shows Haiti has won only three matches in competitive FIFA fixtures since 2010, with recent campaigns marked by narrow defeats to established sides. Scotland, conversely, qualified for Euro 2020 and has demonstrated consistent competitive depth in qualifying rounds. The 5% probability on Polymarket aligns closely with decimal odds of approximately 20.0 on Betfair and Smarkets, though Kalshi's binary structure (YES/NO at 5 cents) and Polymarket's fee schedule (2% maker, 2% taker) create marginal differences in effective odds across platforms. Kalshi's KYC requirements and US-focused liquidity may suppress volume compared to Betfair's international reach.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates in the final week before 13 June, particularly regarding Scotland's key attacking players and Haiti's defensive personnel. Weather conditions at the Scottish venue and any late fixture rescheduling could shift tactical approaches. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 14 June, allowing approximately four hours post-match for result confirmation across all platforms before final settlement.

Methodology

We read Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.