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Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots 92% Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots 88% Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots 76% Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots 69% Volume: $144K Liquidity: $1.2M Closes: 29 Jun 2026
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Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
92% 8% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
92% 8% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots92%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots88%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots76%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots69%
Rayan: 1+ shots66%
Casemiro: 1+ shots63%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots60%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots59%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots55%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots54%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots54%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists53%
Endrick: 1+ shots53%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots51%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots51%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots51%
Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists50%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists50%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots on target50%
Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists49%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target49%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target49%
Raphinha: 2+ shots on target49%
Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists49%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target49%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target49%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target49%
Casemiro: 2+ shots on target48%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target48%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target48%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target48%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target48%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target48%
Rayan: 3+ shots on target48%
Alisson: 2+ saves48%
Alisson: 4+ saves48%
Alisson: 5+ saves48%
Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves48%
Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists48%
Endrick: 1+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 2+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 3+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 4+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 3+ shots on target48%
Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target48%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target48%
Rayan: 4+ goals + assists47%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots47%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target47%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target47%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target47%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target47%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target47%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists47%
Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists47%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots47%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target47%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target47%
Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves47%
Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves47%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists47%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists47%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists47%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists47%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists47%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target47%
Raphinha: 4+ shots on target47%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target47%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target47%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists46%
Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists46%
Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists46%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots44%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target42%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals39%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target39%
Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists39%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists38%
Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists36%
Endrick: 2+ shots35%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists35%
Rayan: 1+ shots on target33%
Danilo Santos: 1+ shots31%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots30%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals30%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target29%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots28%
Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists28%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists28%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists28%
Alisson: 3+ saves28%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots27%
Rayan: 2+ shots27%
Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists26%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots25%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists25%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists25%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists25%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots25%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists24%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots24%
Rayan: 3+ shots23%
Endrick: 3+ shots23%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots23%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots23%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots22%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists22%
Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots22%
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists21%
Rayan: 1+ goals + assists21%
Rayan: 2+ goals + assists21%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists21%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots21%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target20%
Casemiro: 1+ shots on target20%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target20%
Danilo Santos: 2+ shots20%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals19%
Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots19%
Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots19%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists19%
Rayan: 1+ goals18%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists17%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots17%
Endrick: 4+ shots17%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots17%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists17%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots16%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists16%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots16%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists16%
Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists16%
Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots15%
Rayan: 4+ shots14%
Casemiro: 2+ shots14%
Endrick: 1+ goals14%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals14%
Rayan: 2+ shots on target14%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists14%
Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target14%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists14%
Rayan: 3+ goals + assists13%
Neymar Jr: 1+ assists13%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target13%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots13%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists13%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots13%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals13%
Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots13%
Rayan: 3+ goals12%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots12%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists12%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals12%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target11%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots11%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots11%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots11%
Rayan: 5+ shots10%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals10%
Rayan: 1+ assists10%
Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots10%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals10%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals10%
Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists10%
Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists10%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists10%
Endrick: 5+ shots10%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals9%
Neymar Jr: 2+ assists9%
Rayan: 2+ assists9%
Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots9%
Neymar Jr: 5+ shots9%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals9%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals8%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals8%
Casemiro: 1+ assists8%
Igor Thiago: 5+ shots8%
Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots8%
Neymar Jr: 4+ shots8%
Casemiro: 1+ goals7%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals7%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals7%
Raphinha: 1+ shots on target7%
Danilo Santos: 1+ assists7%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals6%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists6%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists6%
Endrick: 2+ goals6%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals6%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists5%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists5%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals5%
Danilo Santos: 2+ assists5%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists4%
Rayan: 2+ goals4%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals3%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals3%
Casemiro: 2+ assists3%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists3%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists3%
Endrick: 3+ goals3%
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals3%
Danilo Santos: 2+ goals3%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals2%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals2%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals2%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists2%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists2%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists2%
Casemiro: 2+ goals2%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals2%
Raphinha: 3+ goals2%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals1%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals1%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals1%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals1%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals1%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals1%
Raphinha: 1+ goals1%
Raphinha: 2+ goals0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 92% probability to brazil vs. japan - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.

Methodology

We read Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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