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Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Cross-platform snapshot for "Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Match Winner 62% Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 3? 60% Game 1 Winner 59% Any Player Ultra Kill 58% Volume: $152K Liquidity: $280K Closes: 15 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
62% 38% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
62% 38% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner62%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 3?60%
Game 1 Winner59%
Any Player Ultra Kill58%
Game 2 Winner57%
Any Player Rampage55%
Ends in Daytime52%
Ends in Daytime52%
Ends in Daytime52%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks52%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 2?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?47%
Both Teams Beat Roshan43%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)34%
Both Teams Beat Roshan33%
Both Teams Beat Roshan33%
Any Player Ultra Kill25%
Any Player Ultra Kill25%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks24%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks24%
Any Player Rampage11%
Any Player Rampage8%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 62% probability to dota 2: team vision vs team spirit (bo3) - the international group stage. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between TEAM VISION and Team Spirit in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolv…

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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