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Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Match Winner 67% Game 2 Winner 63% Game 1 Winner 61% Ends in Daytime 53% Volume: $70K Liquidity: $543K Closes: 21 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
67% 33% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
67% 33% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner67%
Game 2 Winner63%
Game 1 Winner61%
Ends in Daytime53%
Ends in Daytime53%
Ends in Daytime52%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?52%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
O/U 2.5 Games48%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)41%
Both Teams Beat Roshan37%
Both Teams Beat Roshan37%
Any Player Ultra Kill37%
Both Teams Beat Roshan36%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks35%
Any Player Rampage28%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks26%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks26%
Any Player Ultra Kill26%
Any Player Ultra Kill23%
Any Player Rampage6%
Any Player Rampage6%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, dota 2: team yandex vs nigma galaxy (bo3) - the international playoffs stands at 67% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Team Yandex and Nigma Galaxy in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at …

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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