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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs

Which venue prices "Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? 56% Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? 55% Ends in Daytime 53% Ends in Daytime 52% Volume: $66K Liquidity: $519K Closes: 21 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
56% 44% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
56% 44% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?55%
Ends in Daytime53%
Ends in Daytime52%
Ends in Daytime52%
First Blood in Game 2?49%
First Blood in Game 1?49%
O/U 2.5 Games48%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?42%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)40%
Both Teams Beat Roshan38%
Both Teams Beat Roshan38%
Game 1 Winner37%
Game 2 Winner37%
Both Teams Beat Roshan36%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks35%
Any Player Ultra Kill35%
Match Winner32%
Any Player Ultra Kill32%
Any Player Ultra Kill30%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks27%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks27%
Any Player Rampage20%
Any Player Rampage20%
Any Player Rampage19%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 56% probability to dota 2: team spirit vs team vision (bo3) - the international playoffs. This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Team Spirit and TEAM VISION in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This mar…

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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