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Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B

Which venue prices "Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Game 1 Winner 100% Game 2 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5) 100% Volume: $114K Liquidity: $681K Closes: 25 Jul 2026
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Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Game 2 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Team AION (+1.5)100%
Ends in Daytime91%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Ends in Daytime10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
O/U 2.5 Games0%
Any Player Ultra Kill0%
Any Player Rampage0%
Both Teams Beat Roshan0%
Any Player Ultra Kill0%
Any Player Rampage0%
Game Handicap: Team AION (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5)0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, dota 2: ilbirs esports vs team aion (bo3) - epl masters play-in group b stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Ilbirs eSports and Team AION in the EPL Masters Play-In Group B, initially scheduled for July 25 at 3:00AM ET. This market will reso…

Methodology

We read Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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