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Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Cross-platform snapshot for "Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 100% Match Winner 83% Map 2 Winner 57% Volume: $589K Liquidity: $552K Closes: 16 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Match Winner83%
Map 2 Winner57%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5)56%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-6.5) vs Phantom (+6.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.550%
O/U 2.5 Games45%
Map Handicap: PHA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs Phantom (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-6.5) vs Phantom (+6.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Phantom (-3.5) vs Heroic (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Phantom (-6.5) vs Heroic (+6.5)0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, counter-strike: heroic vs phantom (bo3) - stake ranked episode 3 playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Semifinals 1 match between Heroic and Phantom in the Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 16 at 1:30…

Methodology

This page compares Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
and

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Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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