Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 91% |
| Spread -1.5 | 90% |
| Spread -2.5 | 90% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 90% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| Spread -3.5 | 83% |
| Spread -4.5 | 83% |
| Spread -5.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| Spread -6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 30.5 | 76% |
| O/U 32.5 | 76% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| Spread -7.5 | 71% |
| Spread -9.5 | 68% |
| O/U 40.5 | 66% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| Wisconsin O/U 17.5 | 64% |
| O/U 42.5 | 60% |
| Spread -10.5 | 57% |
| Penn State O/U 27.5 | 57% |
| Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| Spread -12.5 | 54% |
| O/U 44.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Penn State O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| O/U 46.5 | 46% |
| Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| Spread -18.5 | 44% |
| Spread -16.5 | 42% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| Spread -17.5 | 35% |
| O/U 54.5 | 35% |
| Spread -15.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 34% |
| O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| Wisconsin O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| Spread -23.5 | 21% |
| Wisconsin O/U 23.5 | 19% |
| Spread -24.5 | 15% |
| O/U 58.5 | 11% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 1H Moneyline | 10% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 10% |
| Spread -27.5 | 9% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State | 8% |
| Spread -30.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -4.5 | 5% |
| Spread -3.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -6.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Market context
Wisconsin vs. Penn State. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 8% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T21:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $377K.
Methodology
This page compares Wisconsin vs. Penn State specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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