Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 93% |
| Spread -2.5 | 93% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| Spread -4.5 | 90% |
| O/U 34.5 | 89% |
| Spread -5.5 | 88% |
| Spread -6.5 | 88% |
| Spread -7.5 | 84% |
| O/U 40.5 | 80% |
| Spread -10.5 | 79% |
| Spread -13.5 | 77% |
| Spread -14.5 | 73% |
| Spread -16.5 | 70% |
| Spread -17.5 | 66% |
| O/U 46.5 | 66% |
| Spread -20.5 | 62% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| O/U 36.5 | 60% |
| O/U 38.5 | 60% |
| O/U 48.5 | 60% |
| O/U 32.5 | 58% |
| O/U 30.5 | 57% |
| Spread -21.5 | 56% |
| Spread: Washington (-22.5) | 55% |
| O/U 50.5 | 55% |
| O/U 33.5 | 54% |
| Spread -23.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| Spread -8.5 | 53% |
| O/U 42.5 | 53% |
| O/U 44.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 53% |
| O/U 35.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Washington 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Washington 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Washington 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Washington State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Demond Williams Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Quaid Carr: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dezmen Roebuck: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Limar: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rashid Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kirby Vorhees: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Christian Moss: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trey Cooley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Caden Pinnick: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Decker DeGraaf: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tony Freeman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Maxwell Woods: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Darrius Clemons: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tank Hawkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Leo Pulalasi: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Dees: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Lawson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Daniel Blood: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jack Pedersen: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| Washington State O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Spread -24.5 | 48% |
| O/U 52.5 | 48% |
| Washington O/U 42.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| O/U 54.5 | 44% |
| Spread -27.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| O/U 56.5 | 38% |
| O/U 58.5 | 32% |
| O/U 64.5 | 20% |
| 1H Moneyline | 11% |
| O/U 70.5 | 10% |
| Washington State vs. Washington | 7% |
Market context
The Washington State vs. Washington prediction market currently prices this outcome at 93% YES. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 6 at 4:00PM ET: If Washington State wins, the market will resolve to "Washington State". If Washington wins, the market will resolve to "…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $230K.
Methodology
We read Washington State vs. Washington from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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