Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 96% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 96% |
| 2Q Spread -16.5 | 96% |
| Spread -17.5 | 94% |
| Spread -20.5 | 93% |
| Spread -21.5 | 93% |
| Spread -24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 40.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 90% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 90% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 90% |
| 1H Spread -26.5 | 90% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 90% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 90% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 90% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 90% |
| USC 1H O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| USC 1H O/U 27.5 | 90% |
| Spread -27.5 | 88% |
| O/U 43.5 | 84% |
| O/U 54.5 | 76% |
| O/U 52.5 | 75% |
| Spread: USC (-38.5) | 72% |
| O/U 56.5 | 69% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 58.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 58% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 57% |
| Spread -34.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| O/U 64.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -39.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 78.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| USC O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| O/U 76.5 | 49% |
| O/U 60.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| O/U 61.5 | 35% |
| O/U 62.5 | 34% |
| 1H Moneyline | 10% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 10% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| USC 1H O/U 28.5 | 10% |
| USC 1H O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| USC 1H O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| USC 1H O/U 31.5 | 10% |
| San Jose State vs. USC | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 96% chance of san jose state vs. usc. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for August 29 at 3:00PM ET: If San Jose State wins, the market will resolve to "San Jose State". If USC wins, the market will resol…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $131K.
Methodology
We read San Jose State vs. USC from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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