Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 91% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| O/U 39.5 | 86% |
| O/U 41.5 | 81% |
| O/U 43.5 | 79% |
| O/U 45.5 | 74% |
| Louisville O/U 17.5 | 72% |
| Ole Miss O/U 24.5 | 72% |
| Ole Miss O/U 25.5 | 71% |
| Spread -0.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| O/U 49.5 | 64% |
| Ole Miss O/U 27.5 | 64% |
| Louisville O/U 20.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| O/U 51.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| Ole Miss O/U 28.5 | 59% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| Spread: Ole Miss (-6.5) | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Ole Miss O/U 30.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Louisville O/U 23.5 | 52% |
| O/U 54.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Ole Miss 1H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Ole Miss 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Ole Miss O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Louisville O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Trinidad Chambliss: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Joshua Dye: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Makhi Frazier: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Luke Hasz: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Lawayne McCoy: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Brody Foley: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Caleb Odom: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Caleb Cunningham: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Horatio Fields: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ole Miss 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Ole Miss 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Ole Miss 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ole Miss 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kewan Lacy: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Isaac Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keyjuan Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Deuce Alexander: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Lincoln Kienholz: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tre Richardson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Johntay Cook II: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| TreyShun Hurry: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Marquise Davis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaleel Skinner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jackson Voth: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Louisville O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Louisville O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Louisville O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ole Miss O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ole Miss O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ole Miss O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ole Miss O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Ole Miss O/U 31.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Ole Miss O/U 33.5 | 44% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| O/U 57.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Louisville O/U 26.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 59.5 | 38% |
| Ole Miss O/U 34.5 | 38% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| O/U 61.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| Ole Miss O/U 36.5 | 33% |
| Louisville O/U 29.5 | 31% |
| Louisville vs. Ole Miss | 30% |
| Ole Miss O/U 37.5 | 30% |
| O/U 63.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 65.5 | 25% |
| Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| O/U 67.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| O/U 69.5 | 18% |
| O/U 71.5 | 16% |
| Spread -24.5 | 12% |
| O/U 73.5 | 12% |
| O/U 75.5 | 11% |
| Spread -27.5 | 9% |
| Spread -31.5 | 6% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, louisville vs. ole miss stands at 91% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 6 at 7:30PM ET: If Louisville wins, the market will resolve to "Louisville". If Ole Miss wins, the market will resolv…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $130K.
Methodology
This page compares Louisville vs. Ole Miss specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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