Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 31.5 | 99% |
| O/U 37.5 | 95% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion | 91% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 91% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Spread -5.5 | 82% |
| O/U 43.5 | 82% |
| O/U 49.5 | 82% |
| Spread -4.5 | 80% |
| O/U 27.5 | 79% |
| O/U 29.5 | 79% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| Spread -1.5 | 78% |
| O/U 35.5 | 78% |
| O/U 39.5 | 78% |
| Spread -3.5 | 77% |
| O/U 51.5 | 77% |
| Spread -6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 41.5 | 76% |
| James Madison O/U 26.5 | 74% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| Spread -7.5 | 72% |
| Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 70% |
| O/U 53.5 | 70% |
| Spread -9.5 | 67% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| Spread -12.5 | 60% |
| Spread -10.5 | 60% |
| Old Dominion O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| O/U 55.5 | 59% |
| Spread -11.5 | 58% |
| Old Dominion O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| Spread -14.5 | 54% |
| Spread -13.5 | 54% |
| O/U 61.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| Spread -16.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| James Madison O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| James Madison O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| Spread -19.5 | 46% |
| O/U 67.5 | 42% |
| O/U 59.5 | 40% |
| Spread -20.5 | 37% |
| O/U 63.5 | 37% |
| Spread -22.5 | 36% |
| Spread -23.5 | 35% |
| O/U 65.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -11.5 | 12% |
| Spread -2.5 | 9% |
| Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
Market context
James Madison vs. Old Dominion. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 91% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T22:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $539K.
Methodology
We read James Madison vs. Old Dominion from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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