Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Game Spread +/-4.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, phan thiet 3: cruz hewitt vs timofei derepasko stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Cruz Hewitt and Timofei Derepasko in the Phan Thiet 3, originally scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
This page compares Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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