Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts. This market refers to the tennis match between Jay Dylan Friend and Michael Geerts in the Roehampton 2, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jay Dylan F…
Methodology
We read Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Trade Roehampton 2: Jay Dylan Friend vs Michael Geerts on Polymarket Alternative
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →