Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 60% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 21.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 23.5 | 42% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 Winner | 40% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar | 21% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 Winner | 1% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market refers to the tennis match between Roman Andres Burruchaga and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
This page compares Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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