Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, national bank open: benjamin bonzi vs yannick hanfmann stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Benjamin Bonzi and Yannick Hanfmann in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 2, 2026 at 7:30PM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
We read National Bank Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Yannick Hanfmann from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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