Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Match O/U 38.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 3 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 51% YES probability for Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda. This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Zachary Svajda in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Belluc…
Methodology
This page compares Wimbledon ATP: Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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