Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Auger-Aliassime, the Canadian 23rd seed, faces Chilean qualifier Tabilo in the second round of Roland Garros on 1 June 2026. The market currently prices Auger-Aliassime's advancement at 66% implied probability, reflecting his higher ranking and seeding advantage. Across major platforms, this probability translates differently: Polymarket displays it as 0.66 decimal odds, whilst Kalshi and Betfair present fractional equivalents (roughly 2/3 and 1.66 respectively). Fee structures diverge meaningfully—Polymarket charges 2% on both sides, Kalshi takes 2% on winners only, and Betfair's commission varies by sport tier, typically 5% on tennis. KYC requirements also split the field: Polymarket and Kalshi demand full US-based verification, whilst Smarkets and Betfair accept broader international participation with lighter documentation.

Historical context matters here. Auger-Aliassime has won 71% of his clay-court matches over the past three seasons, though his Roland Garros record specifically shows inconsistent second-round performance—he's exited early twice in the last four years. Tabilo, ranked 42nd, qualified for the main draw and has demonstrated improved clay credentials, reaching the Santiago final in February 2026. The 25-point ranking gap typically justifies the 66% baseline, but Tabilo's qualifying run and recent form on red clay suggest tighter odds than some historical seeding models would predict.

Traders should monitor the official draw confirmation and any weather delays affecting the 1 June scheduling window. Court assignment and surface conditions at Roland Garros can shift match dynamics substantially. The settlement deadline of 8 June allows a seven-day buffer for rescheduling; any postponement beyond that triggers the 50-50 resolution clause, a material tail risk that platforms price differently depending on their historical weather data assumptions.

Methodology

This page compares Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.