Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic. This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Dusan Lajovic in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
We read Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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