Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
18% | 82% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
18% | 82% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 18% |
| United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 14% |
| United States 1 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 13% |
| United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 11% |
| United States 3 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 10% |
| United States 1 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 9% |
| United States 3 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 8% |
| United States 0 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 6% |
| United States 2 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4% |
| United States 0 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3% |
| United States 1 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3% |
| United States 3 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3% |
| United States 0 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% |
| United States 1 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% |
| United States 2 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% |
| United States 3 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% |
| United States 0 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 18% probability to united states vs. bosnia and herzegovina - exact score. In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the United States v…
Methodology
We read United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Exact Score from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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