Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score," a catch-all category that typically captures 40–60% of probability mass in football exact-score markets depending on the liquidity depth of listed outcomes.

Historical precedent from the 2022 World Cup suggests exact-score markets on group-stage fixtures between mid-ranked nations (Sweden ranked 24th, Tunisia 30th in FIFA standings) rarely concentrate probability on a single scoreline. Tunisia's last World Cup appearance in 2018 saw them lose 5–2 to Belgium and draw 1–1 with Panama; Sweden's 2018 campaign included a 1–0 defeat to Germany and a 3–0 win over Mexico. The 0% crowd probability reflects either sparse initial liquidity or genuine uncertainty—common on Polymarket where fee structures (2% maker/taker) and lower KYC friction can fragment early trading compared to Kalshi's fixed spreads or Betfair's commission model. Smarkets and Kalshi typically show tighter consensus on group-stage fixtures once trading volume builds.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through May 2026 and any late injury withdrawals, particularly for Sweden's attacking depth. Fixture scheduling changes—whilst unlikely—would trigger the postponement clause. The settlement window closes 14 June at 02:00 UTC, allowing roughly 4 hours post-match for official confirmation. Comparative liquidity across platforms will likely shift significantly once the tournament draw is finalised in December 2025, when group compositions become certain.

Methodology

This page compares Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.