Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ shots | 100% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 100% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Yazeed Abulaila: 2+ saves | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 5+ shots | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ shots | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ shots | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 4+ shots | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Géronimo Rulli: 2+ saves | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ assists | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ goals | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ goals | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| José Manuel López: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Yazeed Abulaila: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Yazeed Abulaila: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Yazeed Abulaila: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Géronimo Rulli: 3+ saves | 0% |
| Géronimo Rulli: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Géronimo Rulli: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 0% |
Market context
Jordan vs. Argentina - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Jordan and Argentina, scheduled for June 27 at 10:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Jordan vs. Argentina - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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