Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 6% implied probability for a specific scoreline reflects the combinatorial rarity of predicting an exact result in football; across major platforms, this type of granular outcome typically attracts lower probability mass than match-winner or over/under markets.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets on unfamiliar matchups remain difficult to price. Haiti qualified for the 2026 World Cup as CONCACAF representatives but has limited recent competitive history against European opposition; Scotland, a UEFA nation, has not qualified for a World Cup since 1998. When teams with asymmetric tournament experience meet, bookmakers on Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets often price such fixtures conservatively, with the "Any Other Score" catch-all absorbing 40–60% of total probability mass. The current 6% reflects this structural uncertainty.

Traders should monitor team news through May 2026, particularly injury updates to key players and final squad announcements, typically released one week before the tournament. Fixture scheduling changes remain possible; FIFA occasionally adjusts group-stage kick-off times for broadcast symmetry. Fee structures differ across platforms—Polymarket charges 2% on resolution, whilst Kalshi and Smarkets apply variable maker/taker fees—which affects the effective odds required to justify a position. Betfair's exchange model allows lay positions, offering an alternative hedge if conviction shifts.

Methodology

This page compares Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.