Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 98% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 92% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 71% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 2% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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