Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 59% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 46% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 46% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for France vs. Sweden - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares France vs. Sweden - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade France vs. Sweden - Player Props on Polymarket Alternative
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →