Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 73% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 73% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 57% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 49% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 33% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 31% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Nicolas Raskin: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Cucurella: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 20% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Nathan Ngoy: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 95% probability to spain vs. belgium - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Belgium, scheduled for July 10 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Spain vs. Belgium - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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