Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 55% |
| Ends in Daytime | 53% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 42% |
| Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) | 40% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 38% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 38% |
| Game 1 Winner | 37% |
| Game 2 Winner | 37% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 36% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 35% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 35% |
| Match Winner | 32% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 32% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 30% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Any Player Rampage | 20% |
| Any Player Rampage | 20% |
| Any Player Rampage | 19% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 56% probability to dota 2: team spirit vs team vision (bo3) - the international playoffs. This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Team Spirit and TEAM VISION in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The Inter… on Polymarket Alternative
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →