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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Game 3 Winner 69% Game 2 Winner 68% O/U 3.5 Games 64% Game 4 Winner 60% Volume: $2.3M Liquidity: $503K Closes: 5 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 69% 31% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 69% 31% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 3 Winner69%
Game 2 Winner68%
O/U 3.5 Games64%
Game 4 Winner60%
Match Winner57%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 5?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 5?50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1?50%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)47%
First Blood in Game 1?45%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?45%
Game 1 Winner44%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 3?42%
O/U 4.5 Games38%
Game Handicap: FLC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)34%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 69% YES probability for Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs. This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between Team Falcons and Team Liquid in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 5 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team …

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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