Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) | 91% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs ECHO (+6.5) | 91% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 9% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 8% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-9.5) vs ECHO (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ECHO (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of counter-strike: aurora gaming vs echo (bo3) - starladder starseries european qualifier play-in. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 2 match between Aurora Gaming and ECHO in the StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In, initially scheduled for July 2…
Methodology
We read Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs ECHO (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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