Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| Paide Linnameeskond O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 52% |
| Zirə FK O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Paide Linnameeskond 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paide Linnameeskond 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paide Linnameeskond 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zirə FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zirə FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paide Linnameeskond O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Zirə FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Zirə FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Paide Linnameeskond 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Zirə FK O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 42% |
| O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Paide Linnameeskond (-2.5) | 34% |
| Zirə FK (-1.5) | 29% |
| Zirə FK O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Zirə FK (-2.5) | 10% |
| O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Paide Linnameeskond O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Paide Linnameeskond (-1.5) | 4% |
Market context
The Paide Linnameeskond vs. Zirə FK - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 93% YES. More markets for the UEFA Europa Conference League game, scheduled for July 23 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Paide Linnameeskond vs. Zirə FK - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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