Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| EC Bahia O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| EC Bahia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score | 55% |
| EC Bahia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| EC Bahia O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 28% |
| EC Bahia (-1.5) | 23% |
| EC Bahia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| EC Bahia O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 19% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| EC Bahia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5) | 10% |
| EC Bahia (-2.5) | 9% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5) | 3% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 93% YES probability for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia - More Markets. More markets for the Brazil Série A game, scheduled for August 16 at 10:00 AM ET.
Methodology
We read Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. EC Bahia - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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