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Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel

Which venue prices "Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Completed Match 100% Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 1 O/U 8.5 100% Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 1 O/U 9.5 100% Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set Handicap +/-1.5 100% Volume: $58K Closes: 6 Oct 2026
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Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Completed Match100%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 1 O/U 9.5100%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set Handicap +/-1.5100%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Game Spread +/-3.5100%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel0%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 1 Winner0%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 2 Winner0%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Total Sets: O/U 2.50%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 1 O/U 10.50%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 2 O/U 8.50%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 2 O/U 9.50%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Set 2 O/U 10.50%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Match O/U 21.50%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Match O/U 22.50%
Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel Match O/U 23.50%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to jingshan: arthur weber vs yanki erel. This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Weber and Yanki Erel in the Jingshan, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Weber' if Ar…

Methodology

This page compares Jingshan: Arthur Weber vs Yanki Erel specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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