Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel Game Spread +/-0.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to japan open tennis championships, qualification: adolfo vallejo vs taro daniel. This market refers to the tennis match between Adolfo Vallejo and Taro Daniel in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This page compares Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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