Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 85% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Match O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Match O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 Winner | 45% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 Winner | 44% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca | 42% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 37% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 37% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 85% YES probability for National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca. This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Joao Fonseca in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefa…
Methodology
This page compares National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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