Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Game Spread +/-5.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification atp: franco roncadelli vs elias ymer. This market refers to the tennis match between Franco Roncadelli and Elias Ymer in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This page compares US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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