Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 90% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith | 62% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification atp: jerome kym vs colton smith. This market refers to the tennis match between Jerome Kym and Colton Smith in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jerom…
Methodology
We read US Open, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Colton Smith from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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