Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of croatia open: roman andres burruchaga vs camilo ugo carabelli. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Roman Andres Burruchaga and Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This page compares Croatia Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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