Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Game Spread +/-4.5 | 100% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney | 0% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney. This market refers to the tennis match between Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi and Patrick Maloney in the Fort Worth, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luc…
Methodology
We read Fort Worth: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Patrick Maloney from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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