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PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner

Cross-platform snapshot for "PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Scottie Scheffler 11% Rory McIlroy 10% Tommy Fleetwood 6% Matt Fitzpatrick 5% Volume: $96K Liquidity: $2.7M Closes: 19 Jul 2026
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PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 11% 89% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 11% 89% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Scottie Scheffler11%
Rory McIlroy10%
Tommy Fleetwood6%
Matt Fitzpatrick5%
Jon Rahm4%
Xander Schauffele3%
Viktor Hovland3%
Robert MacIntyre3%
Collin Morikawa2%
Chris Gotterup2%
Justin Rose2%
Wyndham Clark2%
Tyrrell Hatton2%
Cameron Young2%
Si Woo Kim2%
Sam Burns2%
Russell Henley2%
Min Woo Lee2%
Joaquin Niemann1%
Tom Kim1%
Patrick Reed1%
Shane Lowry1%
Bryson DeChambeau1%
Brooks Koepka1%
Justin Thomas1%
Aaron Rai1%
J.J. Spaun1%
Alex Fitzpatrick1%
Jordan Spieth1%
Patrick Cantlay1%
Hideki Matsuyama1%
Harris English1%
Kurt Kitayama1%
Ben Griffin1%
Maverick McNealy1%
Akshay Bhatia1%
Rickie Fowler1%
Kristoffer Reitan1%
Alexander Noren1%
Hao-Tong Li1%
Adam Scott0%
Cameron Smith0%
Corey Conners0%
Brian Harman0%
Victor Perez0%
Michael Thorbjornsen0%
Jordan L. Smith0%
David Puig0%
Max Homa0%
Ryan Gerard0%
Angel Ayora0%
Johnny Keefer0%
Jason Day0%
Sepp Straka0%
Ryan Fox0%
Jacob Bridgeman0%
Keegan Bradley0%
Matt Wallace0%
Tom McKibbin0%
Ryo Hisatsune0%
Jake Knapp0%
Eric Cole0%
JT Poston0%
Marco Penge0%
Bud Cauley0%
Gary Woodland0%
Keita Nakajima0%
Keith Mitchell0%
Sahith Theegala0%
Thomas Detry0%
Alex Smalley0%
Harry Hall0%
Daniel Berger0%
Max Greyserman0%
Jayden Schaper0%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen0%
Michael Kim0%
Lucas Herbert0%
Matt McCarty0%
Nick Taylor0%
Hendrik Du Plessis0%
Sung-Jae Im0%
Andrew Novak0%
Casey Jarvis0%
Pierceson Coody0%
Billy Horschel0%
Daniel Hillier0%
Michael Brennan0%
Jackson Suber0%
Jesper Svensson0%
Bernd Wiesberger0%
Laurie Canter0%
Francesco Molinari0%
Scott Vincent0%
Sami Valimaki0%
Louis Oosthuizen0%
Matthew Jordan0%
John Parry0%
Sam Stevens0%
Daniel Brown0%
Player 00%
Player 10%
Player 20%
Player 30%
Player 40%
Player 50%
Player 60%
Player 70%
Player 80%
Player 90%
Player 100%
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Player 120%
Player 130%
Player 140%
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Player 160%
Player 170%
Player 180%
Player 190%
Other0%

Market context

Market consensus: 11% chance of pga tour: the open championship winner. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 The Open Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the The Open Champ…

Methodology

We read PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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