Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 81% |
| S.Y. Noh | 50% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 44% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 31% |
| Jake Knapp | 29% |
| Maverick McNealy | 25% |
| Tom Kim | 25% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 24% |
| Sam Stevens | 23% |
| Michael Brennan | 23% |
| Tony Finau | 22% |
| Lucas Glover | 21% |
| Jackson Koivun | 20% |
| Corey Conners | 19% |
| Keith Mitchell | 18% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 18% |
| Benjamin James | 18% |
| Mac Meissner | 18% |
| Pierceson Coody | 17% |
| Jackson Suber | 17% |
| Max Homa | 17% |
| Doug Ghim | 17% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 17% |
| Brian Harman | 17% |
| Ben Kohles | 17% |
| Taylor Moore | 17% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 16% |
| Casey Jarvis | 16% |
| Max McGreevy | 16% |
| Johnny Keefer | 15% |
| Davis Thompson | 15% |
| Gary Woodland | 14% |
| Michael Kim | 14% |
| Ricky Castillo | 14% |
| Beau Hossler | 14% |
| Andrew Putnam | 14% |
| Zach Bauchou | 14% |
| Denny McCarthy | 14% |
| Zac Blair | 14% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 13% |
| Max Greyserman | 13% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 13% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 13% |
| John Parry | 13% |
| Rico Hoey | 13% |
| Keita Nakajima | 13% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 13% |
| William Mouw | 12% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 12% |
| Kevin Yu | 12% |
| Steven Fisk | 12% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 12% |
| Lee Hodges | 12% |
| Seamus Power | 12% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 12% |
| Joel Dahmen | 12% |
| Jesper Svensson | 11% |
| Austin Smotherman | 11% |
| Tom Hoge | 11% |
| Kevin Roy | 11% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 11% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 10% |
| Preston Stout | 10% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 10% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 10% |
| Billy Horschel | 10% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 10% |
| Matt Kuchar | 10% |
| Chris Kirk | 10% |
| Austin Eckroat | 10% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 9% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 9% |
| A.J. Ewart | 9% |
| Garrick Higgo | 9% |
| Chad Ramey | 9% |
| David Lipsky | 9% |
| Chandler Phillips | 9% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 8% |
| Nick Dunlap | 8% |
| Karl Vilips | 8% |
| Neal Shipley | 8% |
| David Skinns | 8% |
| Aaron Wise | 8% |
| Lanto Griffin | 8% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 7% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 7% |
| Luke Clanton | 7% |
| Trace Crowe | 7% |
| Mark Hubbard | 7% |
| Adam Hadwin | 7% |
| Ryder Cowan | 6% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 6% |
| Hayden Springer | 6% |
| Harry Higgs | 6% |
| Cameron Champ | 6% |
| Vince Whaley | 6% |
| Gordon Sargent | 5% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 5% |
| Luke List | 4% |
| Jason Day | 0% |
Market context
The PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 prediction market currently prices this outcome at 81% YES. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not anno…
Methodology
This page compares PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Trade PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 on Polymarket Alternative
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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