Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Senate has already moved a fiscal 2026 reconciliation package through committee, but it still needs floor passage before 31 May to settle this market Yes. The House adopted the Senate-passed budget resolution on 29 April, and Senate committees released an initial package on 4 May, reported by Ballotpedia and CBO as roughly $72 billion in deficit impact over ten years. That puts the market in the late-stage legislative phase: drafting has happened, but the binding event is still a Senate vote on a final reconciliation bill, not committee text or a budget resolution.

For comparison, the current 0% crowd view sits well below what the procedural track suggests if leadership remains committed. Reconciliation bills do not face a filibuster once on the floor, so the key issue is timing and party discipline rather than needing 60 votes. The House and Senate instructions called for committee submissions by 15 May, and several reports, including NACo and the AHA, said leadership was aiming for completion by 1 June. On Polymarket, the quote is a straight implied probability; on Kalshi and Betfair you will usually see decimal or contract pricing that can look slightly higher or lower once exchange fees and bid-ask spreads are included. Access also differs: Kalshi is KYC-gated for US users, while Betfair’s reach and market availability depend on jurisdiction.

The main catalysts are leadership announcements, the Senate calendar, and whether the House and Senate can agree on the same text fast enough. A recent Ballotpedia report said the committees had released the first version of the package, while CBO’s score shows the bill is already quantified enough for floor action if leaders choose to move it. Traders should watch for cloture scheduling, amendment limits, and any sign that the White House wants passage before 1 June, as reported by Ballotpedia. If the Senate does not tee up floor consideration this week, the probability of a 31 May passage falls sharply because the chamber would need to clear both debate and final vote in a very compressed window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.