Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s next government will be decided after the October 2026 Knesset election, and this market pays on the person formally sworn in as prime minister, not on who leads coalition talks or serves in an interim role. That distinction matters on Polymarket-style contracts as well as on exchange products such as Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets, because the cash-out logic is typically based on the named settlement rule rather than headline polling; the current crowd price of 35% therefore reflects a specific post-election appointment outcome, not simply a chance of victory at the ballot box.[1][3][18]

The reading of that probability is shaped by Israel’s recent pattern of fragmented parliaments and coalition bargaining, which has repeatedly turned elections into leadership contests as much as party contests. Netanyahu is still the incumbent prime minister and remains the central benchmark for any succession market, while Gadi Eizenkot has emerged as the main challenger in recent polling and commentary, with Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman also drawing attention but trailing the top two in most market and media snapshots.[10][13][16] That makes the market more sensitive to coalition arithmetic than to single-party vote shares, which is one reason prediction books can diverge materially from straight polling averages.[1][7][8]

Traders should watch three catalysts: the final election timetable, post-election coalition negotiations, and any changes in party alliances or candidacies before lists close. Reuters reported on 29 July that elections are set for 27 October and outlined the fragmented field, reinforcing that the main swing factor is not just who wins seats but who can secure a governing majority and then be sworn in.[18] On platform comparison, Polymarket typically shows an implied probability directly, while Betfair and Smarkets usually quote decimal odds that embed a margin; fees and access also differ, with KYC and jurisdiction limits tending to be stricter on regulated books than on some crypto-native venues, so the same political view can trade at slightly different prices across platforms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.