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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Cross-platform snapshot for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Gavin Newsom 19% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15% Jon Ossoff 14% Kamala Harris 9% Volume: $1250.4M Liquidity: $76.4M Closes: 7 Nov 2028
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 19% 81% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 19% 81% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Gavin Newsom19%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15%
Jon Ossoff14%
Kamala Harris9%
Pete Buttigieg5%
Josh Shapiro5%
Andy Beshear3%
Mark Kelly3%
Rahm Emanuel2%
Jon Stewart2%
Ro Khanna2%
Wes Moore1%
Stephen A. Smith1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Mark Cuban1%
J.B. Pritzker1%
Raphael Warnock1%
Cory Booker1%
Michelle Obama1%
Roy Cooper1%
Bernie Sanders1%
Hunter Biden1%
Chelsea Clinton1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
Chris Murphy1%
James Talarico1%
Tim Walz0%
Gina Raimondo0%
Zohran Mamdani0%
John Fetterman0%
Jared Polis0%
Barack Obama0%
Hillary Clinton0%
Liz Cheney0%
Phil Murphy0%
LeBron James0%
George Clooney0%
MrBeast0%
Oprah Winfrey0%
Andrew Yang0%
Beto O’Rourke0%
Kim Kardashian0%
Jasmine Crockett0%
Ruben Gallego0%
Graham Platner0%
Abigail Spanberger0%
Hakeem Jeffries0%
Elissa Slotkin0%
Adam Schiff0%
Josh Stein0%
Alex Padilla0%
Person V0%
Person W0%
Person X0%
Person Y0%
Person Z0%
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Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 19% probability to democratic presidential nominee 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution …

Methodology

This page compares Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Polymarket Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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