Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Jerome Powell would have to stop serving as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board before the deadline for this market to resolve “Yes”; a scheduled end of term, or staying on in any temporary capacity, would not be enough. The current 0% crowd price implies traders see no realistic path to an early departure, which is broadly consistent with how Fed chair transitions have usually worked: the chair either serves to term and hands over at a planned point, or remains in office until a successor is fully ready. Powell’s second term as chair began in May 2022, and under normal practice the key question is not whether a replacement is eventually named, but whether he actually vacates the post before the market’s cut-off.

The comparison angle matters because the same event can price differently across platforms. On Polymarket, the displayed number is an implied probability; on Kalshi, Betfair or Smarkets, traders are more likely to see decimal or fractional-style odds, with different fee models and different levels of KYC/access depending on jurisdiction. That can make a near-zero market on one venue look slightly less extreme on another, even when the underlying view is the same. Brookings noted in May that Kevin Warsh had been confirmed as the next Fed chair after Powell’s second four-year term ends, which reinforces the baseline expectation that any handover is tied to the normal succession process rather than an early vacancy. For this market, the practical catalysts are any formal White House or Senate timing for a successor, any unexpected resignation or removal, and whether Powell is still visibly chairing meetings, issuing statements, or remaining in place through late June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page compares Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.