Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The next US-Iran diplomatic meeting will matter less for venue than for who is physically in the room, because this market resolves only if the named person attends a direct, authorised meeting between the two governments. Recent negotiating rounds show how quickly these events can be scheduled and how often the public signal comes from hosts or intermediaries rather than Washington and Tehran themselves: Oman said the next talks would be in Geneva in February, while later reporting in April said no date had been set for another round even as back-channel contacts continued through Pakistan[1][3][10].

Historically, the cleanest read on a 0% implied probability is that the market is pricing the absence of a confirmed attendance path, not a belief that diplomacy is impossible. The 2025-26 Iran-US sequence has already featured multiple short-notice rounds and shifting formats, with some meetings described as direct talks and others as mediated or preparatory discussions[6][10]. On platforms, the same event can look different: Polymarket usually displays a raw implied probability, while Kalshi and Betfair-style books tend to translate the same view into contract or decimal pricing, and fees or KYC rules can make the executable price differ from the headline number.

The main catalysts are any official announcement of a venue, date, or delegation list, plus confirmations from the White House, Iran’s foreign ministry, Oman, Pakistan, or the Swiss hosts if they are again involved. Reuters reported in mid-April that no date had been set for the next round, despite talk of further engagement, so any fresh public scheduling notice would be the most direct trigger for repricing[10]. For traders comparing venues, Polymarket’s open-access crypto rail can react fastest, while Kalshi’s regulated US access and Betfair/Smarkets-style order books may price the same headline through different spreads, commissions, and liquidity constraints.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.