Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's continued tenure as US President through 30 June 2026 is the baseline assumption priced into most prediction markets, with the 1% YES probability reflecting extremely low conviction that he will resign, be removed via the 25th Amendment, or face successful impeachment and conviction within an 18-month window. The market's settlement criteria distinguish between temporary and permanent removal—only the latter qualifies—which narrows the scope considerably given the high constitutional bar for removal and Trump's stated intent to serve a full term.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting US President has been removed via the 25th Amendment Section 4 (cabinet-led removal), and only Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton faced impeachment trials, both acquitted. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 under threat of impeachment, but that scenario required bipartisan congressional pressure absent in the current divided legislature. Medical incapacity or voluntary resignation remain the primary pathways to YES resolution, neither of which has materialised despite Trump's age (78 at inauguration) and ongoing legal exposure. The 1% probability reflects these structural barriers rather than near-term event risk.

Traders should monitor announcements from Trump's medical team, statements from Vice President JD Vance regarding succession readiness, and any shifts in Republican congressional sentiment following major electoral or legal developments. Cross-platform comparison reveals modest differences: Polymarket's current decimal odds sit around 1.01, whilst Kalshi and Betfair typically offer tighter spreads on binary US political outcomes, though fee structures (Polymarket's 2% settlement fee versus Kalshi's tiered model) affect effective implied probabilities. Smarkets' commission-based approach may appeal to high-volume traders on low-probability events, where fee drag becomes material.

Methodology

This page compares Trump out as President by June 30? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.