Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are once again attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of severe obstructions, with Iran reportedly approving limited, controlled passage for GCC, European and foreign vessels while charging roughly $2 million per ship. Commercial traffic has collapsed from an average of 75–125 daily crossings before the Iran war to single digits since early March 2026, with oil tanker flows near standstill and most detected transits by Iran-linked or high-risk ships using spoofed signals to avoid targeting.

Historically, the strait has seen over 30,000 vessels pass annually, with daily oil transport exceeding 20 million barrels in 2022, but IMF PortWatch data now shows a 95% drop in daily crossings. The current 45% YES probability reflects uncertainty over whether Iran will sustain this fragile, fee-based corridor or revert to full blockage. Platforms diverge sharply here: Polymarket and Betfair quote decimal odds (e.g. 2.22) while Kalshi and Smarkets emphasise implied probability (45%), and fee structures vary from 0% on some peer-to-peer books to 5% on regulated exchanges, with KYC requirements ranging from none to strict identity verification.

Traders should watch Iran’s official announcements on corridor fees, GCC diplomatic responses, and any escalation in attacks on commercial ships. Recent MarineTraffic data confirms commercial traffic remains in the single digits, with oil tanker flow near standstill, suggesting the corridor is not yet stable. Kalshi’s March 2026 snapshot recorded 41 transit calls over a week, but current data shows no sustained recovery. Monitor IMF PortWatch weekly revisions and monthly updates for finalised daily numbers, as only data points confirmed after the next day’s release count for this market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Polymarket Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.